8/7/2007

Duck Hunting Forecasters Predict Excellent Fall Flight
by Lowell Washburn

The beginning of this year's waterfowl season is just weeks away and optimism is running high as hunters prepare for fall. According to a joint summary released by the U.S. Fish & Wildlife Service and Canadian Wildlife Service, this year's survey of duck breeding populations increased 14 percent over 2006, and was 24 percent above the long term [1955 to 2006] average. Couple those duck counts with extremely desirable spring habitat conditions across the eastern Dakotas and prairie Canada --- where overall May pond counts were 44 percent above the long term average and ponds in southern Canada were the fourth highest ever recorded --- and you produce a fall duck migration that will easily exceed 100 million birds.

"Overall, I'd have to say that we're looking at one of the best production efforts from prairie Canada that we've had in twenty years," says DNR State Waterfowl Biologist, Guy Zenner. "The eastern Dakotas were extremely wet and populations of breeding mallards were 138 percent above the long term average in that region. Biologists from southern Saskatchewan tell me they're observing the best duck production in at least three decades. As the migration progresses this fall, those areas can be very important in supplying ducks to Iowa hunters."

This year's fall duck flight will contain a large percentage of young birds --- mallards, teal, redheads, canvasback, gadwalls, and others --- which should bode very well for Iowa hunters, says Zenner. As young ducks migrate south, they tend to explore new habitats and, because they're less experienced, are much more susceptible to hunters' decoys.

But although guaranteed waves of webfoots will be departing the breeding grounds come autumn, knowing exactly where to intercept those flights can become the hunter's greatest challenge. Because Iowa is located smack in the middle of the north/south flyway, hunter success here hinges largely on developing fall weather patterns and the condition of local wetlands. Future weather patterns are impossible to predict, but a preseason visit to your local duck pond can pay big dividends when opening day finally arrives.

"We know that a large flight of ducks will be coming south this fall, but the big unknown at this point is whether or not we'll have substantial amounts of suitable habitat to attract and hold those birds as they cross the state," says Zenner.

"Iowa's prairie pothole region [located in the north central and northwest portions of the state] has just come through a very dry period," said Zenner. "They've recently received some rainfall, but wetlands are low and it will take a lot more precipitation to return marshes to crest levels."

Many of the state's river systems are also experiencing low water levels. This could present problems when it comes time for managers to divert [river] water needed to fill popular public hunting areas such as Otter Creek and Big Marsh.

By contrast, water levels along the upper Mississippi River are more than adequate. Many of the river's backwater areas are currently well vegetated and these food rich habitats should appear very desirable to southbound waterfowl. Zenner regards the Mississippi River as "the biggest bright spot" in this year's habitat puzzle.

Another potential bright spot in this year's habitat mosaic is that wetlands in northern Minnesota are currently supporting an excellent crop of wild rice. If those rice beds attract and hold large numbers of birds, it will help Iowa hunters immensely.

"As northern lakes freeze tight, waterfowl are forced to move southward. It never hurts to have a million or more ducks staged directly north of where you hunt," said Zenner.