WILDLIFE MANAGEMENT UNIT WILD TURKEY FORECASTS

The following forecasts have been developed by Pennsylvania Game Commission wildlife turkey biologist Mary Jo Casalena using harvest data and observations by agency employees. Take a moment to check out what's happening in your WMU.

WMU 1A - Expect the fall harvest to be better than last year. Turkey hunter success last fall was the fifth best in the state (14.6 percent). Turkey summer sightings, which provide an index to recruitment, this year were slightly higher than last year and the third highest on record.  Summer sightings and harvest densities typically are above the state average.

WMU 1B - Excellent compared to other areas of the state, but when compared to itself, about similar to last year, which was above average, but not as good as 2000-2003. Turkey hunter success last fall was the second best in the state (17.1 percent).

WMU 2A - Fair to poor compared to the harvests and population this WMU had in 2000 and 2001. Although harvests and summer recruitment are above the statewide average, they are still below average for this WMU. Hunters in this WMU had the third highest hunter success last fall, along with WMU 4E, at 15.2 percent.

WMU 2B - Variable. Hard to predict because of the lack of public land.  For hunters who secure access to hunting areas, prospects are excellent; hunters in this WMU had the highest hunter success last fall (20.4 percent). Harvest density last fall also was above the state average.

WMU 2C - Fair, but better than last year. Turkeys are on the rise again in this WMU, in part because of the shorter, two-week fall season that has been in place since 2004. Spring harvests and summer sightings still are below the state average, but when compared to previous years in this WMU, they are above-average. Fall hunter success last year (11.6 percent) was slightly below the statewide average  (12.3 percent).

WMU 2D - Harvest densities are above the state average, but remain below average for this WMU.  Summer sightings were below average and similar to last year. I expect the harvest to be similar to last year. Fall hunter success in 2005 was the seventh best in the state (14.4 percent).

WMU 2E - Very good for hunting juvenile birds. Summer sightings were more than twice as high as the previous three-year average, and even above the long-term average. Spring harvest densities are still below the statewide average.  Fall hunter success in 2005 was well below average (8.5 percent), but prospects are better for this fall. The shorter two-week season may be helping to improve this WMU's turkey population.

WMU 2F - Poor to fair. Harvest density and summer sighting indices continue to be below-average for this WMU and below the state average. However, hunters continue to enjoy hunting this WMU.  Fall hunter success last year was 9.6 percent compared to the previous three-year average of 19.1 percent for this WMU. But fall hunter success fluctuates considerably, especially in this WMU.

WMU 2G - Fair. Harvest density and summer sighting indices are beginning to show slightly increasing trends, indicating a slightly increasing population.  Fall hunter success last year was 10.1 percent, which is still below the three-year average for this WMU.

WMU 3A - Prospects look promising. Summer sightings over the last two years were as good as 2001 and 2002.  Fall hunter success last year was 13.9 percent, the eighth best in the state, but still below the three-year average for this WMU.

WMU 3B - Average for this WMU and slightly above the state average. This WMU typically maintains a relatively steady harvest density and summer sightings. Harvests are similar to the state average, even though summer sightings typically are below the state average. Fall hunter success last year was 11.5 percent.

WMU 3C - Very good to excellent. Summer sightings this year and last are at record levels so there are plenty of turkeys in this WMU. Fall hunter success last year was 14.1 percent, the sixth best in the state, but still below the three-year average for this WMU.

WMU 3D - Average. The turkey population in this WMU is increasing slightly and recruitment this year is similar to last year. The fall harvest this year should be similar to slightly better than last year. Fall hunter success last year was 12.6 percent.

WMU 4A - Very good. Fall hunter success last year was 11.7 percent and above the previous three-year average for this WMU, but still slightly below the state average (12.3 percent). Harvests have been increasing as a result of the record recruitment here in 2004 and 2005.  Recruitment in 2006 decreased, but was still slightly above the long-term average.  The two-week fall season that has been in place since 2004 may be helping this population to rebound.

WMU 4B - Expect this fall's harvest to improve from last year. This WMU has been showing tremendous fluctuations in recruitment and harvest densities, but still remains slightly above the state average. Recruitment in 2004 was a record high whereas recruitment in 2005 was nearly a record low, and in 2006 was average. Expect this fall's harvest to improve from last year. Fall hunter success last year was 9.7 percent

WMU 4C - This WMU maintains a steady summer sighting index trend, which is below the state average, but above average harvest densities. Indications from the stable summer sighting index trend and slightly rising fall harvest density trend suggest that hunting prospects will be average to slightly better than last year. Fall hunter success last year was 11.7 percent.

WMU 4D - Fall hunting prospects should be similar to last year because recruitment has been similar for the past several years, as indicated by the summer sighting index. The two-week fall season that has been in place since 2004 may be helping to stabilize this population. Fall hunter success last year was 10.7 percent.

WMU 4E - Very good for this WMU. This WMU had record recruitment for the last two years and a record spring harvest density in 2006, compared to other years. Both indices show an increasing population trend for this WMU. Fall harvest densities also remain above the state average. Fall hunter success last year was tied with WMU 2A as the third best in the state, 15.2 percent.

WMU 5A - Closed.

WMU 5B - Closed.

WMU 5C - I expect an average harvest as indicated from an average summer sighting index and average 2006 spring harvest density for this WMU. Harvest densities are below the state average.  Fall hunter success last year was 12.1 percent.

WMU 5D - The data set for this WMU is minimal, but I expect an average harvest.  

Created in 1895 as an independent state agency, the Game Commission is responsible for conserving and managing all wild birds and mammals in the Commonwealth, establishing hunting seasons and bag limits, enforcing hunting and trapping laws, and managing habitat on the 1.4 million acres of State Game Lands it has purchased over the years with hunting and furtaking license dollars to safeguard wildlife habitat.  The agency also conducts numerous wildlife conservation programs for schools, civic organizations and sportsmen's clubs. 

The Game Commission does not receive any general state taxpayer dollars for its annual operating budget.  The agency is funded by license sales revenues; the state's share of the federal Pittman-Robertson program, which is an excise tax collected through the sale of sporting arms and ammunition; and monies from the sale of oil, gas, coal, timber and minerals derived from State Game Lands.

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