This Year's Duck Hunting Forecast Offers Mixed Bag of Good and Bad News
by Lowell Washburn

Fall hunting seasons are almost here. With this year's duck opener barely three weeks out, Iowa waterfowlers are wondering just what to expect when they finally bag the decoys and head to area wetlands.

Making meaningful predictions for the upcoming waterfowl season is always tricky business. This year the task is nigh unto impossible, says DNR Waterfowl Biologist, Guy Zenner. The good news is that, come autumn, generous numbers of ducks will be flying south out of prairie Canada. The bad news is that most Iowa wetlands may be dry when they get here.

"There's little doubt that we'll be looking at a good fall flight coming out of Canada," said Zenner. "When ducks arrived on prairie Canada last spring, they encountered good to very good wetland habitat conditions across most of Saskatchewan and southern Manitoba. Those are key breeding areas, and Iowa gets a large number of ducks from those regions."

"Here in Iowa, this spring's breeding pair survey was down somewhat, and I expect overall duck production to be lower as well," said Zenner. "Water levels remained adequate during April and May, and brood survival was good. The rains stopped during the summer, and by mid-July habitat conditions were changing. Wetlands began drying up."

Water levels continued to decline across most of the state during August. Currently, most wetlands in the prairie pothole region of north central and northwestern Iowa are dry or nearly dry. Many potholes have been dry for more than six weeks and have become completely revegetated with duck preferred, moist soil plants, such as smartweed.

Although few duck hunters are likely to view current marsh conditions as favorable, this summer's lack of water may offer mixed blessings says Zenner.

Most of the ponds across northern Iowa have been full of water for more than a decade. But in order to function properly, prairie wetlands need dry cycles as well as wet. That's when marshes recharge and revegetate. And although it may be hard for hunters to take in the short term, regenerated marshlands have a much greater diversity of plant and invertebrate animal life when water returns. Potholes that are dry today will offer greatly improved habitat conditions and hunting opportunities during future seasons.

Although this year's duck hunting forecast is far from rosy, Zenner cautions hunters not to become overly pessimistic. Fall weather patterns are classically fickle and substantial rainfall could be just around the corner. With the state's flood control reservoirs --- Red Rock, Rathbun, Saylorville, and Coralville --- currently hosting thousands of acres of mature smartweed; the stage is set. A few inches of water is all that is needed to turn these dry backwaters into a food rich, waterfowl paradise. Zenner also notes that many of the larger public wetlands such as Otter Creek, Lake Odessa, Green Island, Sweet Marsh, and Big Marsh also enjoyed excellent production of moist soil food plants during the past summer.

"If we do get substantial fall rains, duck hunting could be excellent," said Zenner. "If we don't get those rains, hunting conditions will be challenging across much of the state.

"This is definitely a year for preseason scouting. Hunters need to visit the areas they plan to use this fall," Zenner added. "No one wants to be one of those hunters who shows up in the dark on opening morning and discovers that the wetland they planned to hunt is bone dry."