Hunters did their job in the just completed deer season. Wildlife officials now will compare simulations and computer models with aerial deer counts, postcard survey responses and other data to determine how much Iowa's deer population has dropped and future hunting pressure.

While the hard results won't be in hand until April, a pretty solid estimate comes from known sales of 2005 deer tags, alongside 2004's success rates. Combining them places Iowa's 05-06 harvest at 211,600 deer; a new record and up 17,000 from 2004-05, and the previous mark. The increase was driven by increased sales of antlerless deer tags; primarily through county-specific quotas and two new seasons, targeting does. "The vast majority of the increase came from the 16,841 licenses sold, and the (estimated) 10,105 antlerless deer taken, during the November season," explains Willy Suchy, deer biologist for the Department of Natural Resources. "Also, the late January season, and the estimated 3,488 more deer taken then. If you look where we sold them; it was in the counties where we needed to kill more deer."

That November season--the three days following Thanksgiving--allowed firearms in a period previously reserved for bowhunters. A seven-day extension of the January season in southern Iowa allowed center-fire rifles to be used. Each was a first for Iowa. Meanwhile, bowhunters, fueled by increased access to antlerless tags, took an estimated 32,756 deer; up 2,731 from the previous season.

Less pronounced increases in the two muzzleloader season harvests and deer taken by nonresidents and hunters in urban, park and depredation hunts helped offset slight declines in youth, disabled and regular shotgun seasons.

Wildlife officials have been under pressure to reduce deer numbers throughout much of the state. The midwinter estimates are provided to state lawmakers as they pore over dozens of bills requesting specific deer legislation. A key figure is the number of does killed...and those remaining. "In each of the last three seasons, the doe harvest has increased and has been higher than the buck harvest. That reduces the reproductive capacity of the herd," explains Suchy. After the 2003 season, he estimated about 400,000 deer in Iowa. Last year, the estimate was about 370,000. Heading into this year, it should be about 310,000, and with a lower percentage of female deer. "After 2003, we saw the (post season) populations leveling off. After '04, reproduction started heading down. This year, we should see substantial drops in reproduction," forecasts Suchy.

Those drops, harvests and recommendations for the upcoming season will become firm as information from '05 hunters and this winter's aerial surveys is compiled. "(Our) post card survey comes from a representative sample of hunter groups; bow hunters, shotgun hunters and others, asking how many deer they killed," says Suchy. "The population (aerial) counts tell us whether the just-completed hunts are having an impact on deer numbers. I can put together a simulation to show how many deer are out there."

If the harvest figures are confirmed, the deer decline should be about 15%-20% this year and near goals set by the DNR. That could lead to a reduction in antlerless deer killed this fall and winter. "It is very likely that anterless license quotas will need to be reduced or eliminated in many counties in northern and central Iowa," forecasts Suchy. In southern and eastern Iowa, with higher deer numbers, he anticipates fine-tuning antlerless quotas and reviewing the January and November seasons; depending on final figures.

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