DES MOINES - Iowa pheasant hunters could have something to look forward to this fall and winter as early indicators have shown favorable nesting results and survival so far this spring.

The news comes on the heels of a year when Iowa's pheasant population declined an estimated 34 percent.

"Last year's numbers declined because a snowy winter reduced hen survival, and very heavy rains late in May of 2004 also reduced nesting success," said Todd Bogenschutz, DNR upland wildlife biologist. "Last June our weather models predicted the decline, and the August roadside surveys and hunter reports confirmed it."

This past winter and spring offer a bit more optimism than last year, said Bogenschutz.

"Our pheasant population typically shows increases following mild winters (Dec.-March) with springs (April-May) that are dryer and warmer than normal," he said. "This past winter was very mild, as the statewide average snowfall was only 18.1 inches, 28 percent below the 1961-90 normal. Statewide April-May precipitation averaged 7.35 inches, only slightly above the norm, while the mean temperature over the same period was 56 degrees, or 1 degree above normal.

Perhaps the best news for pheasant hunters this fall is the mild winter Iowa experienced this past year. According to the state's climatologist, in 118 years of records, only 13 winters had less snowfall than this past winter. Mild winters lead to high hen survival, said Bogenschutz, and more hens laying eggs equals more chicks, which in turn means more roosters this fall.

Spring nesting conditions initially were very favorable as April was normal for rainfall, but much warmer than average. Statewide, temperatures cooled off a bit in May, and NW, NC, WC, and Central regions of Iowa reported monthly rainfall totals 1 to 3 inches above normal. However, rainfall in the eastern third of Iowa was on average 2 inches below normal. Localized heavy rains were reported in Dickinson, Emmet, Kossuth, Adair, Madison, Dallas, and Guthrie counties in May. These areas may see a poorer nesting effort as flooding may have destroyed some nests, said Bogenschutz. A number of wildlife staff reported seeing their first pheasant broods around the week of May 15, which is early, said Bogenschutz. Indications are the warm April encouraged early nesting, and early hatches are usually a sign of a good nesting season.

However, Bogenschutz cautioned hunters Iowa pheasants are not out of the woods yet. Continued dry conditions during the early summer are crucial to overall nesting success.

Based on the weather data, population models predict Iowa's pheasant numbers will be higher in 2005 than in 2004. Bogenschutz noted that predictions based on weather data are correct about 80 percent of the time and over the last four years the models have been correct. Bogenschutz says the DNR's August roadside survey is the best gauge of what upland populations will be this fall. The DNR will post its August roadside numbers on the DNR webpage www.iowadnr.com around Sept. 15. Those with e-mail can sign-up on the DNR's website to receive roadside survey results once they are completed.

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